Retail trade growth may slow in the lead-up to Christmas, according to the AFGC CHEP Retail Index. Year-on-year retail trade growth is expected to soften to 3.6 per cent in the December quarter from 4.2 per cent in the September quarter.
On a monthly basis, the Index was 4.4 per cent higher in September 2015 compared with September 2014, with retail trade turnover of $24.5 billion. Growth is expected to slow to 3.6 per cent year-on-year in the month of November with turnover of $24.6 billion.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics trend data indicates that the consistently strong food sector saw year-on-year sales growth weakening to below 3 per cent in August.
Australian Food and Grocery Council CEO, Gary Dawson said, “We are currently seeing weaker food price inflation domestically because of a range of factors including below average income growth over the past three years and a slowing in population growth.
“However, at the same time, the lower Australian dollar has seen a 28 per cent surge in Australia’s food and beverage exports in 2014-15, as reported in our annual industry snapshot State of the Industry 2015, underpinning growth in the food and grocery sector despite challenging economic conditions.”
Phillip Austin said, “In these times of challenge for domestic retailers CHEP is committed to supporting the industry with standardised and unitised solutions that unlock untapped efficiencies in the supply chain.”
The AFGC CHEP Retail Index is a collaborative project between the Australian Food and Grocery Council and CHEP Australia, powered by Deloitte. The Index uses CHEP transactional data based on pallet movements and is a lead indicator of Australian Bureau of Statistics Retail Trade Data.
The next AFGC CHEP Retail Index will be released in late January 2016. To read the Index and access more background information, visit www.afgc.org.au or www.chep.com.